![]() In Michigan, 62% of youth supported Biden, compared to 35% for Trump.Young voters, who nationwide preferred Biden by a 25-point margin (61% to 36%), were especially critical in the key battleground states that decided the presidential race: Regardless of estimate methodology, our analysis shows that youth voter turnout is up compared to 2016. Young voters turned out at a higher rate than in recent elections: our analysis suggests that, based on votes counted as of midday November 7, an estimated 49%-52% of young people participated in the election-and when all votes are counted (using this method and data available at this point) we project that youth voter turnout may be as high as 53-56%. Our data revealed that more than 10 million youth cast early and absentee ballots. But the impact of young voters on the election has been clear for weeks. In what appears to be an election with historically high overall turnout for the entire electorate, the fact that the youth share in 2020 appears to be comparable to or higher than the youth share in recent elections may suggest that young people participated at a high rate, 'kept up' with older voters, and had a major influence on the electorate.Īt a time of historic uncertainty, when the nation confronts a pandemic and economic hardship, young people turned out in large numbers across the country and were instrumental in the victory of President-elect Joe Biden and the first female Vice President-elect.įour days after Election Day, the race has finally been called in favor of Biden by major news outlets. ![]() The share of all votes cast by young people depends, not just on the participation of young voters, but of the entire electorate (as such, it’s different than youth voter turnout ). We’re tracking the data closely and will update the youth vote share as needed. It’s worth noting that the youth share of the vote is often adjusted in in the days after the election, as more respondents are added and the weighting is refined. By comparison, the youth share of the vote in 2016 from the same source was 16%. That’s based on data from the National Election pool national exit poll conducted by Edison Research. We estimate that the youth share of the vote in this election is 17%. Youth Share: What Percentage of Ballots Were Cast by Youth? We are publishing a range for each estimate in order to account for the margin of error in the youth share of voters. All estimates are based on the youth share of the vote from the National Election Pool exit polls by Edison Research. Election Project (including projected totals in 2020). Our 2016 projection based on the same data was that youth voter turnout that year would be 45%-48%. It’s notable that even the early youth turnout estimate for 2020 is higher than the projected estimate from 2016.ĬIRCLE’s exclusive early turnout estimates are based on tallies of votes cast, and projected turnout uses vote totals from the U.S. In addition, we are projecting that once all votes are counted, youth turnout may rise to 53%-56%. Using the same methodology and data from a week after the election in 2016, we had previously estimated that youth voter turnout in 2016 was 42-44%. ![]() Our calculations, based on votes counted as of November 18, suggest that 52%-55% of voting-eligible young people, ages 18-29, cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential election. Read more.Īccording to CIRCLE’s exclusive estimates, youth turnout was much higher in the 2020 election than in 2016. In Spring 2021, based on voter files from 40+ states, we revised our estimate of young people's electoral participation to 50%. ![]() Note: The analysis below reflects our youth voter turnout estimate based on data immediately available in the days and weeks after the 2020 Election Day.
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